2024 08 14

Man, woman, dog. It’s the dog days of political summer. Wilmette, Illinois. June, 2024. © Clayton Hauck

This is not a politics blog.

I did have some thoughts while out on a run this morning that I wanted to put into words. Previously, my thinking was that, post-disaster-presidential-debate, there was no way both candidates would be on the ballot come November (see: 2024 06 28). Well, after some likely strong-arming by Democratic leadership behind the scenes, Biden did step aside, remarkably. This, obviously, changed the entire dynamic of the race in ways most of us likely did not expect. While the dust is still settling, it seems clear that Trump no longer seems like the clear favorite in the upcoming election.

All that said, I just wanted to get a dated, on-the-record prediction: that I now think it’s somewhat unlikely that Trump remains on the ticket himself. It’s still far from a guaranteed outcome, but I’d give it healthy odds: say, 5:1.

The most interesting outcome would be to see Trump take some kind of back-room plea deal and step aside to let Nikki Haley run atop the ticket (legalities of this may be dubious but surely they’d find a way), but I doubt the Grand Old Party would allow a woman to step into the role as they likely see having a man up there against a woman as their clear advantage. Time will tell. Crazier things have happened. We still may be stuck with the orange guy for another four plus years. I’m not getting too excited just yet.

This is not a politics blog.

-Clayton